Ethereum Price Update: Breakthrough or Liquidity Trap? The $3,200 Path Decoded

Ethereum price analysis VWAP resistance December 2025.

ETH $3,200 Price Target Analysis.

The Ethereum market is at a massive crossroads today, December 22, 2025. After days of anticipation, ETH has finally tapped into the critical liquidity gap and high-confluence zone between $3,030 and $3,050. While the initial reaction has been positive, the "Monday Morning Pump" carries its usual risks.

Is this a sustainable breakout, or are we destined to sweep the $2,900 level first? Here is the full technical breakdown.

The Resistance Wall: Analyzing the Confluence Zone

Ethereum is currently battling a very "heavy" resistance area. This zone isn't just a psychological number; it’s a cluster of major technical indicators:

• Yearly & Monthly Rolling VWAP: The price is currently testing the Volume Weighted Average Price for both the year and the month.
• Point of Control (POC): This is the level where the most volume has been traded in the current range, acting as a natural magnet and barrier.
• The Liquidity Gap: We filled the gap during the Asian session open, and surprisingly, the price didn't immediately reverse—a sign of underlying strength.

Order Flow Insights: CVD vs. Price Action

What’s interesting right now is the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD).

• The Bullish Divergence: While the price is testing resistance, the CVD is making higher highs and higher lows.
• Lack of Absorption: Usually, at such strong resistance, you'd expect to see "absorption" (heavy selling meeting the buying pressure). We aren't seeing significant absorption yet, which suggests that the bulls might actually have enough momentum to flip this zone.

Ethereum CVD indicator and price resistance divergence

Two Scenarios for the New Year Rally

Despite the bullish order flow, market conditions this week are expected to be volatile. We are looking at two primary paths:

Scenario 1: The Direct Breakout (50% Probability)

If ETH can flip the Yearly VWAP into support and break above $3,120, the path to $3,200 (the top of the range) becomes very clear. This would be fueled by Bitcoin’s current strength above its 30-day rolling VWAP.

Scenario 2: The Liquidity Sweep (50% Probability)

Monday pumps can be deceptive. In this scenario, we reject the current resistance to fill the "downside imbalances" first:

• Target: $2,885 - $2,900.
• Reasoning: This zone holds the Previous Month’s Value Area Low and a significant Fair Value Gap (FVG).
• Outcome: A bounce from $2,900 would provide a much more "organic" and sustained move toward $3,200 in early January.

Ethereum fair value gap and liquidity zones at 2900

Conclusion: Strategic Patience

While the momentum behind Bitcoin looks promising, Ethereum lacks a strong fundamental catalyst to ignore its downside imbalances entirely. My primary target remains $3,200, but the path we take to get there—whether direct or via a $2,900 sweep—will depend on how the market handles the current VWAP resistance.

Stay focused on the order flow and don't let the "Monday FOMO" cloud your judgment.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before trading.